Module 5 - Impact framework
The port scene is a complex setting, as must have become clear from previous modules. Many sub-markets, actors and external factors are interacting and impacting on each other. The below scheme shows the main interrelationships.
As transport is a derived demand phenomenon, as far as shipping is concerned largely depending on international trade, factors that influence international trade will also impact on transport, shipping and ports. These are first of all general, recurring developments in the world economy: economic highs and downturns, changing production costs and purchasing power, etc. Second, this involves changes in globalisation, with an eventual trend towards deglobalisation or more bilateralism as we can observe it since a number of years now. Third, it involves unique, structural changes and breaks. Notable there are climate change, with all its ensuing effects (heat, floods, winds, etc.), demographic changes (population growth and ageing), and changing labour costs (inflation, worker shortages, etc.). The latter group may work directly on global trade, but also indirectly lead to changes in the world economy. It also works directly on maritime transport sectors.
As a reaction to among others climate change, we get emission regulations. Also, we observe a broad phenomenon of digitalisation. Both impact directly on the maritime sector, but also indirectly through world trade.
Green energy production is another reaction to climate change, which impact directly on ports, but also leads to changes in globalisation, with production and consumptions locations changing, and strategic positions taken.
Port traffic then directly influences the usage of the hinterland transport modes. Also climate change, emissions regulation, demography, digitalisation and labour costs act on hinterland transport. Finally, world trade also indirectly influence hinterland transport volumes. The other way around, hinterland connections, as part of supply chains, will impact on world transport, namely if and how it will materialize.
